Model-based geostatistical design and analysis of prevalence for soil-transmitted helminths in Kenya: Results from ten-years of the Kenya national school-based deworming programme.

Background: Kenya is endemic for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) with over 6 million children in 27 counties currently at-risk. A national school-based deworming programme (NSBDP) was launched in 2012 with a goal to eliminate parasitic worms as a public health problem. This study used model-based geostatistical (MBG) approach to design and analyse the impact of the NSBDP and inform treatment strategy changes. Methods: A cross-sectional study was used to survey 200 schools across 27 counties in Kenya. The study design, school selection and analysis followed the MBG approach which incorporated historical data on treatment, morbidity and environmental covariates to efficiently predict the helminths prevalence in Kenya. Results: Overall, the NSBDP geographic area prevalence for any STH was estimated to sit between 2 % and <10 % with a high predictive probability of >0.999. Species-specific thresholds were between 2 % and <10 % for Ascaris lumbricoides, 0 % to <2 % for hookworm, and 0 % to <2 % for Trichuris trichiura, all with high predictive probability of >0.999. Conclusions: Based on the World Health Organization guidelines, STH treatment requirements can now be confidently refined. Ten counties may consider suspending treatment and implement appropriate surveillance system, while another 10 will require treatment once every two years, and the remaining seven will require treatment once every year.

Correction: Prevalence, intensity and associated risk factors of soil-transmitted helminth and schistosome infections in Kenya: Impact assessment after five rounds of mass drug administration in Kenya.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008604.].

Prevalence and Correlation Analysis of Soil-Transmitted Helminths Infections and Treatment Coverage for Preschool and School Aged Children in Kenya: Secondary Analysis of the National School Based Deworming Program Data.

Background: Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are among the most common parasitic infections globally, disproportionately affecting children. Treatment of STH in Kenya is often targeted at preschool (PSAC) and school aged (SAC) children delivered through annual mass drug administration (MDA) in primary schools. Understanding group-specific prevalence and dynamics between treatment and coverage is critical for continued treatment success. This study aims to provide detailed information on group-specific infection prevalence and relative reductions (RR), and their relationships with treatment coverage over time. Additionally, it aims to quantify the correlation between the observed school level infection prevalence and treatment coverage. Methods: Secondary analysis of existing data collected between 2012 and 2018 by the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) program of the National School-Based Deworming (NSBD) program was used. The M&E program conducted surveys utilizing cross-sectional study design, at four survey time points, in a nationally-representative sample of schoolchildren across counties in Kenya. In each participating school, the program randomly sampled 108 children per school, of both groups. Infection prevalence was estimated using binomial regression, RR in prevalence using multivariable mixed effects model, statistical correlations using structural equation modeling, and change-point-analysis using the binary segmentation algorithm. Results: Overall, STH prevalence for PSAC was 33.7, 20.2, 19.0, and 17.9% during Year 1 (Y1), Year 3 (Y3), Year 5 (Y5), and Year 6 (Y6) surveys, respectively with an overall RR of 46.9% (p = 0.001) from Y1 to Y6. Similarly, overall STH prevalence for SAC was 33.6, 18.4, 14.7, and 12.5% during Y1, Y3, Y5, and Y6 surveys, respectively with an overall RR of 62.6% (p < 0.001). An overall (all time points) significant but very weak negative correlation was found between treatment coverage and undifferentiated STH prevalence (r = -0.144, p = 0.002) among PSAC but not in SAC. Further, we observed inter-county heterogeneity variation in infection prevalence, RR, as well as correlations. Conclusion: The analysis showed that after six rounds of MDA, prevalence of STH has significantly declined among both groups of children, however not to a point where it is not a public health problem (below 1%). The analysis, additionally established an overall significant but weak negative correlation between treatment coverage and prevalence, indicating that the current treatment coverage might not be sufficient to drive the overall STH prevalence to below 1%. These findings will allow STH control programs in Kenya to make decisions that will accelerate the attainment of STH elimination as a public health problem.

Statistical Regression Model of Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene; Treatment Coverage; and Environmental Influences on School-Level Soil-Transmitted Helminths and Schistosome Prevalence in Kenya: Secondary Analysis of the National Deworming Program Data.

According to the Kenya National School-Based Deworming program launched in 2012 and implemented for the first 5 years (2012-2017), the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and schistosomiasis substantially reduced over the mentioned period among the surveyed schools. However, this reduction is heterogeneous. In this study, we aimed to determine the factors associated with the 5-year school-level infection prevalence and relative reduction (RR) in prevalence in Kenya following the implementation of the program. Multiple variables related to treatment, water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and environmental factors were assembled and included in mixed-effects linear regression models to identify key determinants of the school location STH and schistosomiasis prevalence and RR. Reduced prevalence of Ascaris lumbricoides was associated with low (< 1%) baseline prevalence, seven rounds of treatment, high (50-75%) self-reported coverage of household handwashing facility equipped with water and soap, high (20-25°C) land surface temperature, and community population density of 5-10 people per 100 m2. Reduced hookworm prevalence was associated with low (< 1%) baseline prevalence and the presence of a school feeding program. Reduced Trichuris trichiura prevalence was associated with low (< 1%) baseline prevalence. Reduced Schistosoma mansoni prevalence was associated with low (< 1%) baseline prevalence, three treatment rounds, and high (> 75%) reported coverage of a household improved water source. Reduced Schistosoma haematobium was associated with high aridity index. Analysis indicated that a combination of factors, including the number of treatment rounds, multiple related program interventions, community- and school-level WASH, and several environmental factors had a major influence on the school-level infection transmission and reduction.

Prevalence, intensity and associated risk factors of soil-transmitted helminth and schistosome infections in Kenya: Impact assessment after five rounds of mass drug administration in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: In Kenya, over five million school age children (SAC) are estimated to be at risk of parasitic worms causing soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) and schistosomiasis. As such, the Government of Kenya launched a National School Based Deworming (NSBD) program in 2012 targeting the at-risk SAC living in endemic regions, with the aim of reducing infections prevalence to a level where they no longer constitute a public health problem. The impact of the program has been consistently monitored from 2012 to 2017 through a robust and extensive monitoring and evaluation (M&E) program. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the parasitological outcomes and additionally investigate water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) related factors associated with infection prevalence after five rounds of mass drug administration (MDA), to inform the program's next steps. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We utilized a cross-sectional design in a representative, stratified, two-stage sample of school children across six regions in Kenya. A sample size of 100 schools with approximately 108 children per school was purposively selected based on the Year 5 STH infection endemicity prior to the survey. Stool samples were examined for the presence of STH and Schistosoma mansoni eggs using double-slide Kato-Katz technique, urine samples were processed using urine filtration technique for the presence of S. haematobium eggs. Survey questionnaires were administered to all the participating children to collect information on their demographic and individual, household and school level WASH characteristics. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Overall, STH prevalence was 12.9% (95%CI: 10.4-16.1) with species prevalence of 9.7% (95%CI: 7.5-12.6) for Ascaris lumbricoides, 3.6% (95%CI: 2.2-5.8) for Trichuris trichiura and 1.0% (95%CI: 0.6-1.5) for hookworm. S. mansoni prevalence was 2.2% (95%CI: 1.2-4.3) and S. haematobium prevalence was 0.3% (95%CI: 0.1-1.0). All the infections showed significant prevalence reductions when compared with the baseline prevalence, except S. mansoni. From multivariable analysis, increased odds of any STH infections were associated with not wearing shoes, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.36 (95%CI: 1.09-1.69); p = 0.007; high number of household members, aOR = 1.21 (95%CI: 1.04-1.41); p = 0.015; and school absenteeism of more than two days, aOR = 1.33 (95%CI: 1.01-1.80); p = 0.045. Further, children below five years had up to four times higher odds of getting STH infections, aOR = 4.68 (95%CI: 1.49-14.73); p = 0.008. However, no significant factors were identified for schistosomiasis, probably due to low prevalence levels affecting performance of statistical analysis. CONCLUSIONS: After five rounds of MDA, the program shows low prevalence of STH and schistosomiasis, however, not to a level where the infections are not a public health problem. With considerable inter-county infection prevalence heterogeneity, the program should adopt future MDA frequencies based on the county's infection prevalence status. Further, the program should encourage interventions aimed at improving coverage among preschool age children and improving WASH practices as long-term infection control strategies.

Risk factors for Plasmodium falciparum infection in the Kenyan Highlands: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission in African highland areas can be prone to epidemics, with minor fluctuations in temperature or altitude resulting in highly heterogeneous transmission. In the Kenyan Highlands, where malaria prevalence has been increasing, characterising malaria incidence and identifying risk factors for infection is complicated by asymptomatic infection. METHODS: This all-age cohort study, one element of the Malaria Transmission Consortium, involved monthly follow-up of 3155 residents of the Kisii and Rachuonyo South districts during June 2009-June 2010. Participants were tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic testing at every visit, regardless of symptoms. RESULTS: The incidence of Plasmodium falciparum infection was 0.2 cases per person, although infections were clustered within individuals and over time, with the majority of infections detected in the last month of the cohort study. Overall, incidence was higher in the Rachuonyo district and infections were detected most frequently in 5-10-year-olds. The majority of infections were asymptomatic (58%). Travel away from the study area was a notable risk factor for infection. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying risk factors for malaria infection can help to guide targeting of interventions to populations most likely to be exposed to malaria.

Impact of metric and sample size on determining malaria hotspot boundaries.

The spatial heterogeneity of malaria suggests that interventions may be targeted for maximum impact. It is unclear to what extent different metrics lead to consistent delineation of hotspot boundaries. Using data from a large community-based malaria survey in the western Kenyan highlands, we assessed the agreement between a model-based geostatistical (MBG) approach to detect hotspots using Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence and serological evidence for exposure. Malaria transmission was widespread and highly heterogeneous with one third of the total population living in hotspots regardless of metric tested. Moderate agreement (Kappa = 0.424) was observed between hotspots defined based on parasite prevalence by polymerase chain reaction (PCR)- and the prevalence of antibodies to two P. falciparum antigens (MSP-1, AMA-1). While numerous biologically plausible hotspots were identified, their detection strongly relied on the proportion of the population sampled. When only 3% of the population was sampled, no PCR derived hotspots were reliably detected and at least 21% of the population was needed for reliable results. Similar results were observed for hotspots of seroprevalence. Hotspot boundaries are driven by the malaria diagnostic and sample size used to inform the model. These findings warn against the simplistic use of spatial analysis on available data to target malaria interventions in areas where hotspot boundaries are uncertain.

Factors associated with high heterogeneity of malaria at fine spatial scale in the Western Kenyan highlands.

BACKGROUND: The East African highlands are fringe regions between stable and unstable malaria transmission. What factors contribute to the heterogeneity of malaria exposure on different spatial scales within larger foci has not been extensively studied. In a comprehensive, community-based cross-sectional survey an attempt was made to identify factors that drive the macro- and micro epidemiology of malaria in a fringe region using parasitological and serological outcomes. METHODS: A large cross-sectional survey including 17,503 individuals was conducted across all age groups in a 100 km(2) area in the Western Kenyan highlands of Rachuonyo South district. Households were geo-located and prevalence of malaria parasites and malaria-specific antibodies were determined by PCR and ELISA. Household and individual risk-factors were recorded. Geographical characteristics of the study area were digitally derived using high-resolution satellite images. RESULTS: Malaria antibody prevalence strongly related to altitude (1350-1600 m, p < 0.001). A strong negative association with increasing altitude and PCR parasite prevalence was found. Parasite carriage was detected at all altitudes and in all age groups; 93.2 % (2481/2663) of malaria infections were apparently asymptomatic. Malaria parasite prevalence was associated with age, bed net use, house construction features, altitude and topographical wetness index. Antibody prevalence was associated with all these factors and distance to the nearest water body. CONCLUSION: Altitude was a major driver of malaria transmission in this study area, even across narrow altitude bands. The large proportion of asymptomatic parasite carriers at all altitudes and the age-dependent acquisition of malaria antibodies indicate stable malaria transmission; the strong correlation between current parasite carriage and serological markers of malaria exposure indicate temporal stability of spatially heterogeneous transmission.

The Impact of Hotspot-Targeted Interventions on Malaria Transmission in Rachuonyo South District in the Western Kenyan Highlands: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission is highly heterogeneous, generating malaria hotspots that can fuel malaria transmission across a wider area. Targeting hotspots may represent an efficacious strategy for reducing malaria transmission. We determined the impact of interventions targeted to serologically defined malaria hotspots on malaria transmission both inside hotspots and in surrounding communities. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Twenty-seven serologically defined malaria hotspots were detected in a survey conducted from 24 June to 31 July 2011 that included 17,503 individuals from 3,213 compounds in a 100-km2 area in Rachuonyo South District, Kenya. In a cluster-randomized trial from 22 March to 15 April 2012, we randomly allocated five clusters to hotspot-targeted interventions with larviciding, distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying, and focal mass drug administration (2,082 individuals in 432 compounds); five control clusters received malaria control following Kenyan national policy (2,468 individuals in 512 compounds). Our primary outcome measure was parasite prevalence in evaluation zones up to 500 m outside hotspots, determined by nested PCR (nPCR) at baseline and 8 wk (16 June-6 July 2012) and 16 wk (21 August-10 September 2012) post-intervention by technicians blinded to the intervention arm. Secondary outcome measures were parasite prevalence inside hotpots, parasite prevalence in the evaluation zone as a function of distance from the hotspot boundary, Anopheles mosquito density, mosquito breeding site productivity, malaria incidence by passive case detection, and the safety and acceptability of the interventions. Intervention coverage exceeded 87% for all interventions. Hotspot-targeted interventions did not result in a change in nPCR parasite prevalence outside hotspot boundaries (p ≥ 0.187). We observed an average reduction in nPCR parasite prevalence of 10.2% (95% CI -1.3 to 21.7%) inside hotspots 8 wk post-intervention that was statistically significant after adjustment for covariates (p = 0.024), but not 16 wk post-intervention (p = 0.265). We observed no statistically significant trend in the effect of the intervention on nPCR parasite prevalence in the evaluation zone in relation to distance from the hotspot boundary 8 wk (p = 0.27) or 16 wk post-intervention (p = 0.75). Thirty-six patients with clinical malaria confirmed by rapid diagnostic test could be located to intervention or control clusters, with no apparent difference between the study arms. In intervention clusters we caught an average of 1.14 female anophelines inside hotspots and 0.47 in evaluation zones; in control clusters we caught an average of 0.90 female anophelines inside hotspots and 0.50 in evaluation zones, with no apparent difference between study arms. Our trial was not powered to detect subtle effects of hotspot-targeted interventions nor designed to detect effects of interventions over multiple transmission seasons. CONCLUSIONS: Despite high coverage, the impact of interventions targeting malaria vectors and human infections on nPCR parasite prevalence was modest, transient, and restricted to the targeted hotspot areas. Our findings suggest that transmission may not primarily occur from hotspots to the surrounding areas and that areas with highly heterogeneous but widespread malaria transmission may currently benefit most from an untargeted community-wide approach. Hotspot-targeted approaches may have more validity in settings where human settlement is more nuclear. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01575613.

Use of different transmission metrics to describe malaria epidemiology in the highlands of western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring and evaluation of malaria programmes may require a combination of approaches to detect any effects of control. This is particularly true at lower transmission levels where detecting both infection and exposure to infection will provide additional evidence of any change. This paper describes use of three transmission metrics to explore the malaria epidemiology in the highlands of western Kenya. METHODS: A malariometric survey was conducted in June 2009 in two highland districts, Kisii and Rachuonyo South, Nyanza Province, Kenya using a cluster design. Enumeration areas were used to sample 46 clusters from which 12 compounds were randomly sampled. Individuals provided a finger-blood sample to assess malaria infection (rapid diagnostic test, PCR) and exposure (anti-Plasmodium falciparum MSP-1 antibodies) and a questionnaire was administered to record household factors and assess use of vector control interventions. RESULTS: Malaria prevalence infection rates were 3.0 % (95 % CI 2.2-4.2 %) by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and 8.5 % (95 % CI 7.0-10.4 %) by PCR and these ranged from 0-13.1 to 0-14.8 % between clusters for RDT and PCR, respectively. Seroprevalence was 36.8 % (95 % CI 33.9-39.8) ranging from 18.6 to 65.8 %. Both RDT and PCR prevalences were highest in children aged 5-10 years but the proportion of infections that were sub-patent was highest in those between 15 and 20 years of age (78.1 %, 95 % CI 63.0-93.3 %) and those greater than 20 years (73.3 %, 95 % CI 64.5-81.9 %). Those reporting both indoor residual spraying (IRS) in their home and use of bed nets had lower exposure to malaria compared to those who reported using IRS or bed nets alone. CONCLUSIONS: In this highland site in western Kenya malaria transmission was low, but highly heterogeneous. To accurately characterize the true extent of malaria transmission, more sensitive and complementary metrics such as PCR or serology are required in addition to the standard microscopy and/or RDTs that are routinely used. This is likely to be the case in other low endemicity settings.

'A bite before bed': exposure to malaria vectors outside the times of net use in the highlands of western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The human population in the highlands of Nyanza Province, western Kenya, is subject to sporadic epidemics of Plasmodium falciparum. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) are used widely in this area. These interventions are most effective when Anopheles rest and feed indoors and when biting occurs at times when individuals use LLINs. It is therefore important to test the current assumption of vector feeding preferences, and late night feeding times, in order to estimate the extent to which LLINs protect the inhabitants from vector bites. METHODS: Mosquito collections were made for six consecutive nights each month between June 2011 and May 2012. CDC light-traps were set next to occupied LLINs inside and outside randomly selected houses and emptied hourly. The net usage of residents, their hours of house entry and exit and times of sleeping were recorded and the individual hourly exposure to vectors indoors and outdoors was calculated. Using these data, the true protective efficacy of nets (P*), for this population was estimated, and compared between genders, age groups and from month to month. RESULTS: Primary vector species (Anopheles funestus s.l. and Anopheles arabiensis) were more likely to feed indoors but the secondary vector Anopheles coustani demonstrated exophagic behaviour (p < 0.05). A rise in vector biting activity was recorded at 19:30 outdoors and 18:30 indoors. Individuals using LLINs experienced a moderate reduction in their overall exposure to malaria vectors from 1.3 to 0.47 bites per night. The P* for the population over the study period was calculated as 51% and varied significantly with age and season (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: In the present study, LLINs offered the local population partial protection against malaria vector bites. It is likely that P* would be estimated to be greater if the overall suppression of the local vector population due to widespread community net use could be taken into account. However, the overlap of early biting habit of vectors and human activity in this region indicates that additional methods of vector control are required to limit transmission. Regular surveillance of both vector behaviour and domestic human-behaviour patterns would assist the planning of future control interventions in this region.

Focal Screening to Identify the Subpatent Parasite Reservoir in an Area of Low and Heterogeneous Transmission in the Kenya Highlands.

BACKGROUND: Mass screening and treatment currently fails to identify a considerable fraction of low parasite density infections, while mass treatment exposes many uninfected individuals to antimalarial drugs. Here we test a hybrid approach to screen a sentinel population to identify clusters of subpatent infections in the Kenya highlands with low, heterogeneous malaria transmission. METHODS: Two thousand eighty-two inhabitants were screened for parasitemia by nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR). Children aged ≤ 15 years and febrile adults were also tested for malaria by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and served as sentinel members to identify subpatent infections within the household. All parasitemic individuals were assessed for multiplicity of infections by nPCR and gametocyte carriage by nucleic acid sequence-based amplification. RESULTS: Households with RDT-positive individuals in the sentinel population were more likely to have nPCR-positive individuals (odds ratio: 1.71, 95% confidence interval, 1.60-1.84). The sentinel population identified 64.5% (locality range: 31.6%-81.2%) of nPCR-positive households and 77.3% (locality range: 24.2%-91.0%) of nPCR-positive individuals. The sensitivity of the sentinel screening approach was positively associated with transmission intensity (P = .037). CONCLUSIONS: In this low endemic area, a focal screening approach with RDTs prior to the high transmission season was able to identify the majority of the subpatent parasite reservoirs.

High levels of asymptomatic and subpatent Plasmodium falciparum parasite carriage at health facilities in an area of heterogeneous malaria transmission intensity in the Kenyan highlands.

In endemic settings, health facility surveys provide a convenient approach to estimating malaria transmission intensity. Typically, testing for malaria at facilities is performed on symptomatic attendees, but asymptomatic infections comprise a considerable proportion of the parasite reservoir. We sampled individuals attending five health facilities in the western Kenyan highlands. Malaria prevalence by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) was 8.6-32.9% in the health facilities. Of all polymerase chain reaction-positive participants, 46.4% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 42.6-50.2%) of participants had infections that were RDT-negative and asymptomatic, and 55.9% of those infections consisted of multiple parasite clones as assessed by merozoite surface protein-2 genotyping. Subpatent infections were more common in individuals reporting the use of non-artemisinin-based antimalarials in the 2 weeks preceding the survey (odds ratio = 2.49, 95% CI = 1.04-5.92) compared with individuals not reporting previous use of antimalarials. We observed a large and genetically complex pool of subpatent parasitemia in the Kenya highlands that must be considered in malaria interventions.

Quantifying travel behavior for infectious disease research: a comparison of data from surveys and mobile phones.

Human travel impacts the spread of infectious diseases across spatial and temporal scales, with broad implications for the biological and social sciences. Individual data on travel patterns have been difficult to obtain, particularly in low-income countries. Travel survey data provide detailed demographic information, but sample sizes are often small and travel histories are hard to validate. Mobile phone records can provide vast quantities of spatio-temporal travel data but vary in spatial resolution and explicitly do not include individual information in order to protect the privacy of subscribers. Here we compare and contrast both sources of data over the same time period in a rural area of Kenya. Although both data sets are able to quantify broad travel patterns and distinguish regional differences in travel, each provides different insights that can be combined to form a more detailed picture of travel in low-income settings to understand the spread of infectious diseases.

Reliability of school surveys in estimating geographic variation in malaria transmission in the western Kenyan highlands.

BACKGROUND: School surveys provide an operational approach to assess malaria transmission through parasite prevalence. There is limited evidence on the comparability of prevalence estimates obtained from school and community surveys carried out at the same locality. METHODS: Concurrent school and community cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 46 school/community clusters in the western Kenyan highlands and households of school children were geolocated. Malaria was assessed by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and combined seroprevalence of antibodies to bloodstage Plasmodium falciparum antigens. RESULTS: RDT prevalence in school and community populations was 25.7% (95% CI: 24.4-26.8) and 15.5% (95% CI: 14.4-16.7), respectively. Seroprevalence in the school and community populations was 51.9% (95% CI: 50.5-53.3) and 51.5% (95% CI: 49.5-52.9), respectively. RDT prevalence in schools could differentiate between low (<7%, 95% CI: 0-19%) and high (>39%, 95% CI: 25-49%) transmission areas in the community and, after a simple adjustment, were concordant with the community estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of malaria prevalence from school surveys were consistently higher than those from community surveys and were strongly correlated. School-based estimates can be used as a reliable indicator of malaria transmission intensity in the wider community and may provide a basis for identifying priority areas for malaria control.

Simulation of malaria epidemiology and control in the highlands of Western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Models of Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology that provide realistic quantitative predictions of likely epidemiological outcomes of existing vector control strategies have the potential to assist in planning for the control and elimination of malaria. This work investigates the applicability of mathematical modelling of malaria transmission dynamics in Rachuonyo South, a district with low, unstable transmission in the highlands of western Kenya. METHODS: Individual-based stochastic simulation models of malaria in humans and a deterministic model of malaria in mosquitoes as part of the OpenMalaria platform were parameterized to create a scenario for the study area based on data from ongoing field studies and available literature. The scenario was simulated for a period of two years with a population of 10,000 individuals and validated against malaria survey data from Rachuonyo South. Simulations were repeated with multiple random seeds and an ensemble of 14 model variants to address stochasticity and model uncertainty. A one-dimensional sensitivity analysis was conducted to address parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: The scenario was able to reproduce the seasonal pattern of the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) and patent infections observed in an all-age cohort of individuals sampled monthly for one year. Using an EIR estimated from serology to parameterize the scenario resulted in a closer fit to parasite prevalence than an EIR estimated using entomological methods. The scenario parameterization was most sensitive to changes in the timing and effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and the method used to detect P. falciparum in humans. It was less sensitive than expected to changes in vector biting behaviour and climatic patterns. CONCLUSIONS: The OpenMalaria model of P. falciparum transmission can be used to simulate the impact of different combinations of current and potential control interventions to help plan malaria control in this low transmission setting. In this setting and for these scenarios, results were highly sensitive to transmission, vector exophagy, exophily and susceptibility to IRS, and the detection method used for surveillance. The level of accuracy of the results will thus depend upon the precision of estimates for each. New methods for analysing and evaluating uncertainty in simulation results will enhance the usefulness of simulations for malaria control decision-making. Improved measurement tools and increased primary data collection will enhance model parameterization and epidemiological monitoring. Further research is needed on the relationship between malaria indices to identify the best way to quantify transmission in low transmission settings. Measuring EIR through mosquito collection may not be the optimal way to estimate transmission intensity in areas with low, unstable transmission.

Integrated community-directed intervention for schistosomiasis and soil transmitted helminths in western Kenya - a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Schistosome and soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are recognized as major global public health problems, causing severe and subtle morbidity, including significant educational and nutritional effects in children. Although effective and safe drugs are available, ensuring access to these drugs by all those at risk of schistosomiasis and STHs is still a challenge. Community-directed intervention (CDI) has been used successfully for mass distribution of drugs for other diseases such as onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis. A national control programme is yet to be instituted in Kenya and evidence for cost-effective strategies for reaching most affected communities is needed. This study evaluated the effectiveness and feasibility of the CDI strategy in the control of schistosomiasis and STHs, in East Uyoma location, Rarieda district, a community of western Kenya that is highly endemic for both infections. RESULTS: Pre-treatment prevalence of S. mansoni averaged 17.4% (range 5-43%) in the entire location. Treatment coverage in different villages ranged from 54.19 to 96.6% by community drug distributor (CDD) records. Assessment from a household survey showed coverage of 52.3 -91.9% while the proportion of homesteads (home compounds) covered ranged from 54.9-98.5%. Six months after one round of drug distribution, the prevalence levels of S. mansoni, hookworm and Trichuris trichura infections were reduced by 33.2%, 69.4% and 42.6% respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that CDI is an accepted and effective strategy in the mass treatment of schistosomiasis and STH infections in resource constrained communities in Kenya and may be useful in similar communities elsewhere. A controlled trial comparing CDI and school based mass drug administration to demonstrate their relative advantages is ongoing.